Bayes' theorem is a statistical formula used to calculate conditional probability. Learn how it works, how to calculate it ...

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple concept behind Bayes’ rule, an approach to calculating probabilities, first ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

Chris Wiggins, an associate professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University, offers this explanation. A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American On our most recent episode of our podcast My ...

"Yes or no: was there once life on Mars?" I can't say. "What about intelligent life?"' That seems most unlikely, but again, I can't really say. The simple yes-or-no framework has no place for shadings ...

Inside probability theory, conditional probability is a way to calculate and measure the probability of some event happening if another event has already occurred. The Bayes’ Theorem is one way of ...

Users can use the applet to apply Bayes' theorem to find the probability that a person is actually infected given that the person has tested positive for a disease. The link provides a detailed ...