After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

Treasury yield curve outlook: 3‑month T‑bill most likely 1–2% in 10 years; 2y/10y spread turns positive. See inversion odds ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading. In market lingo, that's known as an "inverted yield curve," and it's had a sterling prediction record. While ...