Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

The yield curve is a graphical representation that plots the interest rates of bonds with equal credit quality but varying maturity dates. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher ...

North American yield curves are experiencing the steepest inversion of the last 3 decades, while European yield curves have flattened significantly in 2022. In the world of fixed income investing, ...

Later in this article, I will display a chart revealing a consistent pattern of when a recession is most likely to begin. From a trader's viewpoint, pattern recognition is essential for successful ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

Economists often look to the US Treasury bond market for clues about when a recession might come. Specifically, they examine the so-called yield curve. When it’s “inverted,” as it has been since about ...

There is much talk these days about the yield curve, and what its shape can tell us about the future of markets. I will not review the analytics of the curve because it is exhaustively covered in the ...

A version of this article was published in the November 2015 issue of Morningstar ETFInvestor. Download a complimentary copy of ETFInvestor here. Flaw of Averages Duration, by itself, is a crude ...

Yields on the longer-term bonds have fizzled after reaching multi-month highs earlier this week, but there's a lingering problem within the Treasury world that's visible in so-called yield curves. On ...